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Completely happy New Month!
The notched up a really respectable 6.9% for the month of October. The chart beneath exhibits the month-to-month development—n.b. click on right here for the log chart model (for the log chart enjoyers). Just about the reverse of September as seasonality and sentiment shifted.
Supply: @topdowncharts
Asset Class Returns In October
Among the many belongings I hold monitor of (these are those I run Capital Market Assumptions for), the US Massive Caps was a detailed second from the highest in October. Total it was a really risk-on month: equities and commodities did effectively, and nearly all flavors of fastened revenue took a step again as authorities bond yields surged globally. EM native forex bonds took a double whammy from rising yields and softer EMFX.
Supply: Monthly Asset Class Returns update
November Is Here
Regular readers will note that seasonality has been a lately (especially given that it helped flag the September stumble and subsequent rebound). Since we’re just about into November, I thought this chart would be worth highlighting. It shows that historically November has been one of the best months of the year. But then again, one could ask the question: how many of those Novembers featured the Fed announcing taper?! (n.b. the FOMC meets this coming week!).
Source: @RyanDetrick
Seasonal Fund Flows
A logical flow-on, as you would possibly count on: November has traditionally been one of many strongest months by way of inflows into fairness funds.
Seasonal Fund Flows
Supply: @ISABELNET_SA
Sensational Fund Flows
From seasonal fund flows to sensational fund flows, once more, I assume one other query value asking is what number of of these Novembers from the chart above featured THIS:
Supply: @MichaelGoodwell
Institutional Investor Confidence
This subsequent one exhibits a measure of investor confidence primarily based on precise information from the large State Road world custodian enterprise. Key level is that institutional buyers appear to be getting extra assured: maybe partially because of declining COVID circumstances, or just simply higher value efficiency—presumably a component of bullish capitulation.
Source: @topdowncharts
Investor Sentiment Disagreement Ranges
This one requires a little bit of rationalization. What it principally exhibits is the extent of disagreement between 2 separate investor sentiment surveys…the sign appears to be that the much less disagreement (i.e., the decrease the unfold between the surveys), the extra bullish the tactical outlook is for equities. So, a reasonably fascinating chart by way of the sign, and a novel strategy.
Source: @WillieDelwiche
Bullish Bears
One other survey, the NAAIM. This one exhibits the inventory market publicity of probably the most bearish lively managers who responded to the survey. As we are able to see, even probably the most bearish have gotten extra bullish (effectively, strictly talking: much less bearish, given their web publicity remains to be solely simply above 50%).
Source: @LizYoungStrat
Fairness Allocations (Exhibit 1)
A brand new all-time excessive for the S&P 500 final week, and a brand new all-time excessive for BofA’s personal consumer allocations to equities. A part of this can simply be the market drifting allocations increased (i.e., efficiency pushed, fairly than lively allocation choices)…however I at all times level out with this type of factor that even simply standing by and letting the market determine your allocations for you is successfully an lively determination (since you may rebalance/scale back publicity in response).
Supply: @MikeZaccardi
Fairness Allocations (Exhibit 2)
Much like the earlier chart, however a a lot wider sample-size, this one exhibits whole common US investor allocations to equities (as a proportion of monetary belongings). Once more it’s in some sense each an indication of complacency and an indication rising threat urge for food [rising (over?) confidence]—all of those sentiments additionally mirrored within the ever increased valuations signaled by the Shiller PE ratio.
Common Investor Allocation To Equities
Supply: @SnippetFinance by way of @MichaelAArouet
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