The New York City Recovery Index: March 7

Editor’s observe: Beneath you will discover the week 79 launch of the NYC Restoration Index, initially printed March 8, 2022. Go to the NYC Restoration index homepage for the most recent knowledge.

New York Metropolis’s financial restoration index posted one other week of constructive positive factors, because the index rose from 88 to 93 for the week ended Feb. 26. That is the very best general rating now we have seen on the index for the reason that begin of the pandemic. Regardless of a little bit of a slowdown within the residence gross sales market and a slight dip in rental vacancies, COVID-19 hospitalizations continued to lower, unemployment numbers are far beneath what they have been over the identical interval in 2019, and restaurant reservations elevated. 

This morning, President Biden issued an govt order banning Russian oil imports to the U.S., amid surging gasoline costs nationwide. Like the remainder of the nation, New Yorkers are feeling ache on the pump, as gasoline costs jumped to $4.36 per gallon throughout New York state on Tuesday, nearly 20 cents greater than the present nationwide common, based on AAA knowledge. Lawmakers are working to carry New York State gasoline tax to assist present some reduction to customers—Republican senators Peter Oberacker and Fred Akshar introduced a New York Fuel Tax Reduction act, which might droop gasoline tax till September 1, 2022 if handed. New York Democratic Assemblyman Angelo Santabarbara proposed related laws that may drop state gasoline tax for a yr.

New York Metropolis’s restoration stands at a rating of 93 out of 100, based on the New York Metropolis Restoration Index, a joint challenge between Investopedia and NY1. Almost two years into the pandemic, NYC’s financial restoration is now 93% recovered.

COVID-19 Hospitalizations Proceed to Fall

COVID-19 hospitalization charges continued to drop for the week ended Feb. 26, with the trailing seven-day common now at 36 hospitalizations each day, which is 20 fewer than final week. COVID-19 hospitalizations have been on the decline for seven straight weeks now, and the hospitalization charge is again to ranges seen in mid-November 2021.

Of the declining COVID-19 instances within the space, the CDC continues to challenge 100% of recent instances within the New York area (together with New Jersey, New York, Puerto Rico, and the U.S. Virgin Islands) are associated to omicron. A complete of two,282,831 instances and 39,927 deaths have been recorded in New York Metropolis as of Feb. 26, whereas 77.1% of New York State’s inhabitants has been absolutely vaccinated in opposition to COVID-19, based on NYC Well being knowledge. 

COVID-19 ICU and COVID-19 ICU intubated charges have decreased considerably. As of Feb. 26, the trailing seven-day common of sufferers with COVID-19 within the ICU in all New York Metropolis hospitals is now down 80.5% from it’s peak of 776 sufferers on Jan. 18, 2022, based on NY State DOH knowledge. The speed of intubated COVID-19 sufferers within the ICU in all New York Metropolis hospitals decreased as of Feb. 26 as effectively, with the trailing seven-day common now down over 79.5% from its peak of 410 sufferers on Jan. 20, 2022, per NY State DOH knowledge. 

Unemployment Claims Stay Steady

Unemployment claims decreased from 5,410 to five,320, or 90 claims, for the week of Feb. 26. The 2019 rolling common of claims over the identical weeks in 2019 elevated from 5,660 to 7,883, making the index measure rating leap from 104 to a excessive of 148 for the week of Feb. 26—the perfect rating of the measure for the reason that begin of the pandemic. Metropolis-wide UI claims are actually 32% beneath 2019 ranges, additional proving that UI claims are steady and should not experiencing any pandemic-related impacts.

Residence Gross sales Cool Off

Pending residence gross sales had a notable decline for the week ended Feb. 26, as the house gross sales index decreased from 183 to 159. Residence gross sales declined week-over-week from 669 to 589 for the week of Feb. 26, in comparison with a rise within the rolling common over the identical interval in 2019, which weighed on the index. Regardless of the dip, residence gross sales are nonetheless 59% greater than they have been in 2019. By borough, Manhattan is again within the lead with a 69% improve in residence gross sales in comparison with 2019 ranges, with Brooklyn and Queens following behind at 65% and 20%, respectively.

Rental Market Dips Barely

The rental market had a slight dip for the week of Feb. 26, with 12,458 leases available on the market in New York Metropolis, which is 336 lower than final week. The decline brought about the rental measure index to drop from 82 to 80. Although the emptiness charge has not but absolutely recovered, it’s now extra aligned with pre-pandemic ranges than it has been over the previous two years. The emptiness charge would wish to get nearer to about 1,000 vacancies or extra to be thought-about absolutely recovered. Nonetheless, New York Metropolis skilled a surge in condo rental costs in 2021. In keeping with Condominium Record, rents in New York rose 33 % between January 2021 and January 2022. That’s nearly double the nationwide charge and the very best improve among the many 100 largest American cities.

Subway Ridership Will increase

Subway ridership elevated barely as of Feb. 26, because the seven-day trailing common of riders is now down 43% beneath 2019 ranges, from 44% beneath final week. Although the slight improve this week just isn’t as nice because the decline from two weeks in the past, it nonetheless pushed ridership numbers nearer to the benchmark of 40% beneath pre–pandemic averages. As of Feb. 26, the MTA reported a trailing seven-day common of two.32 million riders.

Restaurant Reservations Soar Increased

Restaurant reservations had one other considerably constructive week as of Feb. 26, growing from down 46% beneath 2019 ranges final week, to 39 beneath this week. Restaurant reservations in New York Metropolis have now surpassed the edge of 40% beneath pre-Omicron ranges. Eating places might expertise seasonal positive factors as hotter climate comes over the subsequent few months, just like positive factors seen in spring and summer season of final yr, which pushed reservations to a excessive of 35% beneath pre-pandemic ranges.