Russian Casualties Expose a Potential Flaw in Putin’s Strategy

WASHINGTON — When Russia seized Crimea in 2014, President Vladimir V. Putin was so frightened about Russian casualty figures coming to mild that authorities accosted journalists who tried to cowl funerals of a few of the 400 troops killed throughout that one-month marketing campaign.

However Moscow could also be shedding that many troopers each day in Mr. Putin’s newest invasion of Ukraine, American and European officers mentioned. The mounting toll for Russian troops exposes a possible weak point for the Russian president at a time when he’s nonetheless claiming, publicly, that he’s engaged solely in a restricted navy operation in Ukraine’s separatist east.

Nobody can say with certainty simply what number of Russian troops have died since final Thursday, once they started what is popping into an extended march to Kyiv, the capital. Some Russian items have put down their arms and refused to struggle, the Pentagon mentioned Tuesday. Main Ukrainian cities have withstood the onslaught to date.

American officers had anticipated the northeastern metropolis of Kharkiv to fall in a day, for instance, however Ukrainian troops there have fought again and regained management regardless of livid rocket hearth. The our bodies of Russian troopers have been left in areas surrounding Kharkiv. Movies and pictures on social media present charred stays of tanks and armored automobiles, their crews useless or wounded.

The Russian Protection Ministry spokesman, Maj. Gen. Igor Konashenkov, acknowledged on Sunday for the primary time that “there are useless and wounded” Russian troops however supplied no numbers. He insisted Ukrainian losses had been “many instances” larger. Ukraine has mentioned its forces have killed greater than 5,300 Russian troops.

Neither aspect’s claims have been independently verified, and Biden administration officers have refused to debate casualty figures publicly. However one American official put the Russian losses as of Monday at 2,000, an estimate with which two European officers concurred.

Senior Pentagon officers advised lawmakers in closed briefings on Monday that Russian and Ukrainian navy deaths seemed to be the identical, at round 1,500 on either side within the first 5 days, congressional officers mentioned. However they cautioned that the figures — primarily based on satellite tv for pc imagery, communication intercepts, social media and on-the-ground media reviews — had been estimates.

For a comparability, almost 2,500 American troops had been killed in Afghanistan over 20 years of conflict.

For Mr. Putin, the rising demise toll might harm any remaining home help for his Ukrainian endeavors. Russian reminiscences are lengthy — and moms of troopers, particularly, American officers say, might simply hark again to the 15,000 troops killed when the Soviet Union invaded and occupied Afghanistan, or the 1000’s killed in Chechnya.

Russia has deployed discipline hospitals close to the entrance strains, say navy analysts, who’ve additionally monitored ambulances driving backwards and forwards from Russian items to hospitals in neighboring Belarus, Moscow’s ally.

“Given the various reviews of over 4,000 Russians killed in motion, it’s clear that one thing dramatic is going on,” mentioned Adm. James G. Stavridis, who was NATO’s supreme allied commander earlier than his retirement. “If Russian losses are this important, Vladimir Putin goes to have some tough explaining to do on his dwelling entrance.”

Consultant Adam B. Schiff, Democrat of California and the chairman of the Home Intelligence Committee, added, “There are going to be numerous Russians going dwelling in physique baggage and numerous Russian households grieving the longer this goes on.”

Specifically, Pentagon officers and navy analysts mentioned it was stunning that Russian troopers had left behind the our bodies of their comrades.

“It’s been stunning to see that they’re leaving their fallen brethren behind on the battlefield,” mentioned Evelyn Farkas, the highest Pentagon official for Russia and Ukraine through the Obama administration. “Ultimately the mothers will likely be like, ‘The place’s Yuri? The place’s Maksim?’”

Already, the Ukrainian authorities has begun answering that query. On Sunday, authorities launched an internet site that they mentioned was meant to assist Russian households observe down details about troopers who might have been killed or captured. The location, which states it was created by Ukraine’s Ministry of Inner Affairs, says it’s offering movies of captured Russian troopers, a few of them injured. The images and movies change all through the day.

“In case your kin or buddies are in Ukraine and take part within the conflict towards our folks — right here you may get details about their destiny,” the location says.

The title of the location, www.200rf.com, is a grim reference to Cargo 200, a navy code phrase that was utilized by the Soviet Union to consult with the our bodies of troopers put in zinc-lined coffins for transport away from the battlefield; it’s a euphemism for troops killed in conflict.

The web site is a part of a marketing campaign launched by Ukraine and the West to counter what American officers characterize as Russian disinformation, which incorporates Russia’s insistence earlier than the invasion that the troops surrounding Ukraine had been merely there for navy workouts. Data and the battle for public opinion all over the world have come to play an outsize half in a conflict that has come to look like a David vs. Goliath contest.

On Monday, Ukraine’s ambassador to the United Nations, Sergiy Kyslytsya, learn out earlier than the Normal Meeting what he mentioned had been the ultimate textual content messages from a Russian soldier to his mom. They had been obtained, he mentioned, by Ukrainian forces after the soldier was killed. “We had been advised that they’d welcome us and they’re falling beneath our armored automobiles, throwing themselves beneath the wheels and never permitting us to cross,” he wrote, in response to Mr. Kyslytsya. “They name us fascists. Mama, that is so exhausting.”

The choice to learn these texts, Russia specialists and Pentagon officers mentioned, was a not-so-veiled reminder to Mr. Putin of the function Russian moms have had in bringing consideration to navy losses that the federal government tried to maintain secret. In actual fact, a gaggle now known as the Union of Committees of Troopers’ Moms of Russia performed a pivotal half in opening up the navy to public scrutiny and in influencing perceptions of navy service, Julie Elkner, a Russia historian, wrote in The Journal of Energy Establishments in Publish-Soviet Societies.

On Tuesday, a senior Pentagon official mentioned total Russian items have laid down their arms with out a struggle after confronting surprisingly stiff Ukrainian protection. In some circumstances, Russian troops have punched holes of their automobiles’ fuel tanks, presumably to keep away from fight, the official mentioned.

The Pentagon official, who spoke on the situation of anonymity to debate the operational developments, declined to say how the navy had made these assessments — presumably from a mosaic of intelligence together with statements from captured Russian troopers and communications intercepts — or how widespread these setbacks could be throughout the sprawling battlefield.

Photographs of physique baggage or coffins, or troopers killed and left on the battlefield, a Biden administration official mentioned, would show probably the most damaging to Mr. Putin at dwelling.

Ukrainian officers are utilizing the reviews and pictures on social media of Russian casualties to attempt to undercut the morale of the invading Russian forces.

On Monday, Ukraine’s protection minister, Oleksiy Reznikov, supplied Russian troopers money and amnesty in the event that they surrendered.

“Russian soldier! You had been delivered to our land to kill and die,” he mentioned. “Don’t observe prison orders. We assure you a full amnesty and 5 million rubles should you lay down your arms. For many who proceed to behave like an occupier, there will likely be no mercy.”

Thomas Gibbons-Neff and Catie Edmondson contributed reporting. Kitty Bennett contributed analysis.