The Indian economic system grew at 8.7% in 2021-22 with 4.1% progress within the fourth quarter of the monetary 12 months, which is healthier than personal forecasts, based on provisional knowledge launched by the Nationwide Statistical Workplace (NSO). A Bloomberg forecast of economists had projected solely 3.8% GDP progress within the fourth quarter ended March 31, 2022.
The info present that the GDP ranges in 2021-22 have crossed pre-pandemic ranges on higher efficiency by numerous sectors equivalent to manufacturing and development. The economic system had witnessed a detrimental progress (-6.6%) within the earlier monetary 12 months (2020-21) due to the Covid-19 pandemic that had a devastating impression on international economies.
The economic system witnessed a 20.1% progress price within the first quarter of 2021-22, 8.4% within the second quarter of the monetary 12 months and 5.4% within the third quarter. The expansion within the fourth quarter of Fy 22 was severely hit by the Ukraine warfare in February 24, 2022, and embargoes in opposition to Russia by the Western nations that disrupted the worldwide provide chain and led to hovering costs of main commodities and crude oil.
Commenting on the GDP numbers chief financial adviser (CEA) V Anantha Nageswaran mentioned: “Silver linings are that India is healthier positioned than many different nations and monetary sector is in much better form to help progress on this decade.”
“NSO’s provisional estimates for FY22 point out an actual GDP progress of 8.7% and a GVA progress of 8.1%. These numbers verify that every one GDP segments have emerged increased than their pre-Covid magnitudes. That is additionally true for all GVA sectors besides the commerce, motels, transport et. al. Actually, in 4Q FY22, all GDP and GVA segments have overtaken their corresponding 4Q FY20 ranges indicating that the Indian economic system is properly previous the Covid shock,” DK Srivastava, Chief Coverage Advisor of EY India mentioned.
Suvodeep Rakshit, senior economist at Kotak Institutional Equities mentioned the economic system is seeing a gradual restoration. “From the expenditure aspect, personal consumption in addition to funding progress have been muted in 4QFY22 which mirrored within the manufacturing aspect with contraction in manufacturing and weak progress in development in addition to companies. Nevertheless, a lot of the companies, particularly contact-based companies, have picked up in 1QFY23. Progress in 1QFY23 can be excessive given a low base (1QFY22 GDP was hit by second Covid wave),” he mentioned.
ASSOCHAM president Sumant Sinha mentioned with 8.7% GDP growth, India continues to stay the fastest-growing economic system on the earth within the fiscal 2021-22 regardless of a slowdown within the fourth quarter of the 12 months because of the omicron variant of Covid-19.
“Given the targeted means India dealt with the Omicron variant with the assistance of an aggressive vaccination programme and pragmatic coverage interventions such because the extension of the credit score assure scheme for MSMEs, our economic system is taking a look at a continued and powerful rebound within the 7-8% progress vary within the present monetary 12 months,” he mentioned.
