How America Watches for a Nuclear Strike

In late February, when President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia declared that his nation’s nuclear arms had been getting into “particular fight readiness,” America’s surveillance gear went on excessive alert. Lots of of imaging satellites, in addition to different non-public and federal spacecraft, started searching for indicators of heightened exercise amongst Russia’s bombers, missiles, submarines and storage bunkers, which maintain hundreds of nuclear warheads.

The orbital fleet has but to identify something worthy of concern, picture analysts mentioned. Echoing the non-public assessments, U.S. and NATO officers have reported no indicators that Russia is making ready for nuclear conflict. “We haven’t seen something that’s made us alter our posture, our nuclear posture,” Jake Sullivan, the nationwide safety adviser to President Biden, advised reporters on March 23.

However America’s atomic watchdogs have motive to proceed trying, specialists mentioned. Moscow has lengthy practiced utilizing comparatively small nuclear blasts to offset battlefield losses. And a few navy specialists are involved over what Mr. Putin would possibly do, after setbacks in Ukraine, to revive his popularity for edgy ruthlessness.

If Russia had been making ready for atomic conflict, it could usually disperse its bombers to cut back their vulnerability to enemy assault, mentioned Hans M. Kristensen, director of the Nuclear Data Mission on the Federation of American Scientists, a personal analysis group in Washington. However proper now, he mentioned, “none of that’s evident.”

Since 1962, when one in every of America’s first spy satellites failed to identify a cargo of missiles and 158 nuclear warheads that Moscow had despatched to Cuba, America’s surveillance powers in orbit have soared. In the present day, lots of of private and non-private imaging satellites frequently scan the planet to evaluate crops, map cities, handle forests and, more and more, unveil the secretive doings of nuclear states.

Russia’s arsenal exceeds all different nations’ nuclear stockpiles in measurement, making a problem for analysts to totally assess its state of play. Personal American companies comparable to Maxar, Capella Area and Planet Labs have offered analysts with lots of of close-up photos of Russia’s atomic forces. Planet Labs alone has a constellation of greater than 200 imaging satellites and has made a specialty of zeroing in on navy websites.

The non-public fleet tracked Russia’s nuclear forces lengthy earlier than the conflict, revealing upkeep work in addition to routine drills and workouts. That type of baseline understanding helps analysts ferret out true conflict preparations, specialists mentioned. “You monitor these items and start to get a way of what regular appears to be like like,” mentioned Mark M. Lowenthal, a former C.I.A. assistant director for evaluation. “When you see a deviation, it’s a must to ask if one thing’s up.”

A false alarm rang shortly after Mr. Putin’s declaration. A Twitter account, The Lookout, posted {that a} satellite tv for pc had noticed two Russian nuclear submarines leaving a northwestern port. The Specific, a London tabloid, warned in a headline of “strategic readiness.” The information flash received little consideration as a result of seasoned specialists realized the sub departure was a deliberate train.

Nonetheless, Jeffrey Lewis and Michael Duitsman, satellite tv for pc picture specialists on the Middlebury Institute of Worldwide Research in Monterey, Calif., have continued to observe Russia’s fleet of submarines as a result of their actions can present dependable indications of upper states of nuclear conflict readiness.

Usually, roughly half of Russia’s submarines outfitted with long-range missiles exit to sea on scheduled patrols whereas the others stay at their piers for relaxation, repairs and upkeep. Analysts see empty piers as a warning signal.

To evaluate the present state of affairs, Dr. Lewis zoomed in on a big submarine base often known as Gadzhiyevo in Russia’s Arctic north. Photographs of it on Google Earth present a dozen large piers jutting out from rocky fjords.

The Middlebury group examined a close-up picture, taken by Planet on March 7, that confirmed 4 of Russia’s submarines alongside two of Gadzhiyevo’s piers. Mr. Duitsman mentioned a separate picture of all the base revealed that each one its energetic submarines had been in port — suggesting they weren’t making ready for nuclear assault. “Throughout a better state of readiness,” he mentioned, “I might count on a number of submarines to be out at sea.”

The group additionally studied photos of a navy base within the Siberian wilds the place cellular launchers transfer long-range missiles on backcountry roads as a defensive tactic. Mr. Duitsman mentioned the pictures — taken March 30 by one in every of Capella’s radar satellites, which may see by way of clouds in addition to nighttime darkness — confirmed no indicators of surprising exercise.

Lastly, close to the banks of the southern Volga River, the Middlebury group checked out Saratov-63, a nuclear arms storage web site for long-range missiles in addition to Russia’s air power. A bomber base is close by. The pictures, taken by Planet on March 6, revealed a snowy panorama and, Mr. Duitsman mentioned, no proof of a heightened alert standing.

A senior American navy officer in 1998 toured an underground bunker at Saratov-63 and reported that it held not solely extraordinarily highly effective nuclear arms but in addition lesser ones, typically often known as tactical weapons. The small arms are seen as taking part in lead roles in Russian nuclear strikes as a result of their energy may be fractions of the damaging power of the nuclear bomb in Hiroshima, Japan, blurring the road between standard and nuclear arms and making them appear extra usable.

Analysts and nuclear specialists say the accumulating proof means that Mr. Putin’s declaration of “fight readiness” was not an order to arrange weapons however slightly a sign {that a} conflict message is likely to be coming quickly.

Pavel Podvig, a longtime arms researcher from Russia, mentioned the alert more than likely primed the Russian navy for the opportunity of a nuclear order. Nikolai Sokov, a former Soviet diplomat who negotiated arms-control treaties, agreed. “It’s a sign to the command-and-control chain,” he mentioned. “It merely means, ‘Come to consideration. An order could also be coming.’”

However Dr. Lewis of the Middlebury Institute mentioned that Mr. Putin’s order additionally appeared to have despatched extra navy personnel into central posts that relay orders and messages amongst dispersed forces. “That’s why we didn’t see something,” he mentioned. “It was rising the variety of people within the bunkers.” The follow, he added, is a regular a part of how Russia raises its ranges of nuclear readiness: It takes extra folks to hold out conflict preparations than to take care of the websites in a standby mode.

Dr. Lowenthal, the previous C.I.A. assistant director and now a senior lecturer at Johns Hopkins, mentioned he discovered the personnel side of Moscow’s escalatory course of probably the most troubling.

“We will develop a very good baseline on what’s regular” and routine within the motion of Russian nuclear arms, he mentioned. “It’s the interior stuff that’s all the time worrisome.” Imaging satellites, in any case, can’t see what persons are doing inside buildings and bunkers.

He mentioned the principle uncertainty was “the extent of automaticity” in Russia’s escalatory conflict alerts — a subject addressed in “The Useless Hand,” a Pulitzer Prize-winning 2009 e-book that described a semiautomatic system meant to function by itself within the occasion that Russia’s leaders had been killed. In that case, Russia’s nuclear authority would devolve to a couple low-ranking officers in a concrete bunker. It’s unclear if Moscow at the moment depends on one thing comparable.

“You’re by no means fairly positive” how Russia goes about authorizing the usage of nuclear arms, Dr. Lowenthal mentioned. “That’s the type of factor that makes you nervous.”