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I want to proceed my Elliott Wave Precept (EWP) sequence concerning the NASDAQ 100 () by beginning off with a quote as I’ve completed earlier than. It’s by the Indian yoga guru, Maharishi Mahesh Yogi:
“When the elephant decides to stroll by the village, all of the canines come out and bark.”
Supply: Wikipedia
That mentioned, I see no motive to vary my POV solely to fine-tune it as extra worth information turns into obtainable. Specifically, I’ve had the next EWP-based roadmap since June final yr (!): prime at round $15-16K, drop to ~$14.5K, then rally once more to $17-18K. See and , for examples.
And that roadmap has, thus far, panned out nicely: the NDX reached $16.8K in November final yr; the index presently sits at $13870. Thus, I proceed to anticipate the rally to new all-time highs. Two weeks in the past, I the NASDAQ 100 had two choices (A, B) with the shorter-term bearish path:
“the NDX can nonetheless strive for a final stab decrease to NDX13600+/-300 to finish a extra vital 4th wave, however IMHO it should drop beneath NDX14080 to substantiate this selection, with a extreme warning beneath NDX14300.
“… by diligently monitoring the worth motion over the following few days, I’ll know quickly sufficient which door, A or B, the market will undergo.”
The index dropped beneath $14300 final Thursday, thus giving us the extreme warning that it was on the decrease odds path. As such, the chart beneath exhibits the up to date most popular path in direction of $13600+/-300 utilizing the best, Fibonacci-based, EWP impulse sample for this (inexperienced) minor wave-5 of (purple) intermediate wave-c of (black) major-4.
NASDAQ 100 each day candlestick charts with detailed EWP depend and technical indicators
NASDAQ 100 Every day Candlestick Chart
The break beneath NDX14300 already led the index to achieve the purple draw back goal zone I had placed on the chart two weeks in the past. Up to now so good. I’ve added the Fibonacci-extensions of (inexperienced) minor wave-1, measured from the minor wave-2 prime to the chart and (inexperienced) wave-3—the Jan. 24 low—bottomed nearly precisely on the perfect 161.80% extensions.
Wave-4 then determined to bounce above the best, typical, 100% Fib-extension by tagging the 62.80% stage. As such, wave-4 and wave-1 barely overlapped, turning the bigger (purple, intermediate) wave-c of the much more vital (black, main wave-4) into an ending (Increasing) diagonal. Albeit not proven right here, the had no such overlap and continues to be following alongside an nearly picture-perfect impulse sample decrease.
Thus, the key wave-4 correction is near finishing its advanced sample, known as an increasing flat within the EWP. Specifically, as a result of (inexperienced) minor wave-4 gave the markets greater than they bargained for, wave-5 could not attain its perfect draw back goal (inexperienced field on the 176.40-200.00% extensions: $13454-13111).
Nevertheless, the markets don’t owe us something and thus we should be conscious {that a} vital backside might be struck any day now. Particularly contemplating potential constructive divergence is creating between the technical indicators and worth (dotted black arrows).
Backside line: The roadmap I outlined many months in the past continues to be a very good information relating to the NDX’s larger image strikes. Though the close to time period is all the time fraught with extra variability, two weeks in the past I mentioned the index might
“nonetheless strive for a final stab decrease to NDX13600+/-300 to finish a extra vital 4th wave, however IMHO it should drop beneath NDX14080 to substantiate this selection, with a extreme warning beneath NDX14300.”
It seems this transfer decrease is underway and though $13454-13111 could be perfect, the index has already reached low sufficient ($13720) to contemplate a longer-term low is in place. All it now requires is a transfer again above $15200 to substantiate the bigger fifth wave to $18000 is underway, with a critical warning for the bears above $14700.
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