The primary worth that strikes me as being a tad questionable on Tuesday is in Doha and it’s the three.613/5 about Taro Daniel defeating Andy Murray.
Daniel was a snug straight units winner over the veteran Scot on the Australian Open as a 4.57/2 probability and given the pretty apparent enhancements that Daniel has made to his recreation I don’t thoughts the percentages once more right now.
The Japanese participant was close to the highest of the stats by way of first serve factors received on the Australian Open this yr, with 77% (the identical mark as Nick Kyrgios and simply 2% fewer than Daniil Medvedev), which tends to substantiate that his serve is a much-improved weapon thus far in 2022.
Murray did have his probabilities in opposition to Daniel (took solely 2 of 11 break probabilities) however not solely was Daniel higher on first serve (78% received in comparison with Murray’s 65%), however on second serve he received 51% (Murray simply 39%).
Daniel additionally performed effectively the subsequent spherical in opposition to Jannik Sinner and was very aggressive for 2 units earlier than Daniel drained, however Sinner solely received 32% of his second serve factors that day.
Daniel hit serves at 215kph this yr at Melbourne (194 was his greatest there the earlier yr) and his common was round 5kph faster than 12 months earlier than, so he’s a distinct proposition if he retains this up.
He’s been coaching in Miami for the reason that AO, whereas Murray has been very hit or miss since his return to the tour and has been crushed as favorite six instances in his final 11 accomplished matches.
Murray has been crushed as favorite six instances in his final 11 accomplished matches
On the small quantity of knowledge we’ve for 2022 thus far, Daniel has a better mixed service factors received/return factors received whole (105) than Murray (103) and a greater maintain/break whole (106) than the Scot (104), so if Daniel retains his stage up he’s effectively on this contest.
The straight win at 3.613/5 or the +3.5 video games at round 2.111/10 look the bets on this one.
Underdogs in with probabilities in Rio
Fabio Fognini lastly managed to win his first clay match of the season (the primary time he’s managed that since 2015) when he beat Pedro Martinez in Buenos Aires, however was then crushed in two by Federico Delbonis.
Now he faces one other Argentine lefty in Facundo Bagnis, who, as we all know, let a 5-1 lead over Francisco Cerundolo flip right into a 5-7, 1-6 loss in Buenos Aires and this will likely be a primary profession assembly between the pair.
Delbonis had a extremely good day on serve final week in opposition to Fognini (stunning given the wind and his excessive ball toss) when he made 79% of his first serves and received 78% of his first serve factors.
Delbonis solely received 4 second serve factors all match in opposition to Fognini however nonetheless received in two, so good was his serving, and Bagnis doesn’t possess that form of firepower on serve.
Certainly, Bagnis appears to be missing in confidence in the mean time and has received solely one in every of 4 major draw matches in Rio (Fognini is 11-6 win/loss right here) so this appears to be like very winnable for Fabio.
There’s little or no between them on stats over the previous 12 months on clay although, so it’s not one for my cash.
With reference to left-handers, Fernando Verdasco has proven some improved kind within the final couple of weeks and his profession sequence with Dusan Lajovic has been very aggressive through the years.
All bar one in every of their clashes has gone to a closing set and whereas on clay it’s 1-1 head-to-head it’s Verdasco with higher numbers by way of service factors received/return factors received mixed in these two clay matches.
Verdasco is as excessive as 106 in comparison with Lajovic’s 94 and it’s the truth that Verdasco failed with a whopping 75% of his break probabilities and Lajovic took 46% of his that’s allowed the Serb to have success on this match-up.
These matches had been a while in the past and also you surprise what Verdasco has left now at 38 years of age.
Lajovic hasn’t been in good kind on this Golden Swing thus far and was very fortunate to beat Benoit Paire, who in some way managed to overlook a number of wonderful probabilities to win that one, after which he nearly reversed that scenario in opposition to Federico Coria in his subsequent match.
Lajovic is 6-15 win/loss versus top-100 ranked left-handers on clay at major stage, so Verdasco has his probabilities right here.
Lajovic is 6-15 win/loss versus top-100 ranked left-handers on clay at major stage, so Verdasco has his probabilities right here
Federico Coria was struggling initially of the yr as a result of Covid and the psychological facet of issues associated to that, as he defined in Buenos Aires final week:
“I misplaced a number of confidence within the bodily half as a result of COVID. After not having pre-season, it precipitated me many fears. Each time I obtained agitated, I panicked. I finished wanting my coronary heart fee to go up for concern of one thing occurring to me.”
That come-from-behind win over Lajovic in Buenos Aires, by which Lajovic served for a straight units win, has seemingly given Coria his confidence in his personal health again and on this match-up with Cristian Garin he’s been greater than aggressive.
Garin has solely received 38% of his second serve factors in opposition to Coria of their two clay conferences – one right here in Rio in 2020 and the opposite in Bastad in 2021 – and on mixed service/return factors received it’s Coria that’s forward (103 to 98).
Garin was nowhere close to his greatest final week in Buenos Aires in a 4-6, 6-1, 6-1 loss to Sebastian Baez and could possibly be a susceptible favorite right here.