Is It Time For Stocks To Get Defensive Again?

Feb 1, 2022

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Shares prolonged their rally yesterday, because the broke above the 4,500 stage. Is that this nonetheless simply an upward correction?

The S&P 500 index gained 1.89% on Monday, because it prolonged its positive aspects from Friday and broke above the 4,500 stage. It retraced extra of its latest declines after breaking above final week’s consolidation alongside the 4,300-4,400 stage. On final Monday’s low of 4,222.62, the market was 596 factors, or 12.4%, beneath the Jan. 4 file excessive of 4,818.62. And yesterday it reached the brand new excessive of 4,516.89. It nonetheless seems like an upward correction inside a downtrend, nevertheless. The market could also be additionally buying and selling inside a brand new uptrend.

The consolidation alongside the 4,800 stage in late December to early January was a topping sample, and the index retraced all of its record-breaking advance seen in December. On Friday, it broke above a steep short-term downward development line.

The closest necessary resistance stage is now at 4,500-4,550, marked by the earlier native lows. The resistance stage can also be at 4,600. However, the assist stage is at 4,400-4,450, marked by the latest resistance stage. The S&P 500 is now again above its early December native low, as we are able to see on the each day chart (chart by courtesy of http://stockcharts.com):

S&P 500 Daily Chart.

Apple Rallies Once more

Lately, Apple (NASDAQ:) inventory fluctuated alongside the assist stage of $155.0-$157.5 following the mid-January downtrend forward of its quarterly launch. The inventory reversed the downtrend after breaking above a short-term consolidation and because the earnings launch it gained greater than 10%. The resistance stage is at round $180-$183, marked by the Jan. 4 file excessive of $182.94.

Apple Daily Chart.

Conclusion

The S&P 500 index prolonged its advance yesterday and it broke barely above the 4,500 stage. It nonetheless seems like an upward correction following mid-January declines and a rebound inside a brand new medium-term downtrend.

Shares could additional lengthen their uptrend, however there’s a threat of a short-term downward reversal. In the present day, we may even see some uncertainty and a consolidation alongside the 4,500 stage. The market will probably be ready for the quarterly earnings releases (Superior Micro Gadgets Inc (NASDAQ:), Alphabet (NASDAQ:) as we speak after the session’s shut, Meta (NASDAQ:) tomorrow and Amazon (NASDAQ:) on Thursday, amongst others) and the month-to-month jobs knowledge announcement on Friday. There may be additionally uncertainty regarding Russia-Ukraine tensions.

Right here’s the breakdown:

  • The S&P 500 broke above the 4,500 stage once more; it nonetheless seems like an upward correction.
  • We determined to shut our speculative lengthy place from final Tuesday (4,335 stage) on the opening of as we speak’s money market’s buying and selling session – a achieve of round 175 index factors. In our opinion, no positions are at the moment justified from the chance/reward viewpoint.

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