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That is clearly a vacation weekend and admittedly I don’t have a heck of so much to say. So I’m simply going to do a handful of posts and attempt to make them good ones. So that is for at the moment…………..
The good information is that issues are taking part in out completely. My charts had been appropriate (some monkeying round with anchor factors right here and there, however on the entire, on the cash). The unhealthy information is that my pigheadedness, which various of you have got seen, saved me dedicated to my places means too lengthy.
The one factor I did SOMEWHAT proper throughout the week was transfer 40%+ of my portfolio into money, which a minimum of didn’t spend its time getting punched repeatedly within the face like my poor places did! The OTHER not-totally-stupid factor I did was, as all the time, be in places which have months of time left on them (common 147 days now; actually nothing earlier than mid-September!).
What I’ve finished is taken a great onerous take a look at the three essential inventory futures and verified that my Fibonacci retracements on all of them are equivalent. In different phrases, I don’t need to “curve-fit” these Fibs to achieve a sure final result. As an alternative, all of them have this in widespread:
- The low anchor is about to the COVID crash low (March 2020);
- The excessive anchor is about to regardless of the lifetime excessive was (both November 2021 or January 2022)
We’ll begin with the largest of all of them, the , which is the /ES. The topping sample is as plain as day, and critically my jaw is on the ground studying about how EVERYONE is satisfied we’re in for a completely new bull market now. It’s riotous.
Zooming in, we will see the precise degree of the retracement is 4244, about 1.8% larger than Friday’s shut.
The /NQ has a really related sample, and it suggests we’re very near the retracement degree.
Right here we see the tinted area between Friday’s shut and the retracement degree is about 1.3%. Now I need to emphasize that nowhere within the Bible does it state the worth hits these traces to the penny after which goes right into a free-fall. They’re tips. Approximations. Vicinities. Yeah, typically they “nail it,” however don’t have a coronary heart assault if we go above these ranges or, higher but, don’t even attain them.
Lastly, the /RTY is mainly “finished” already.
Certainly, to my level about not having a coronary heart assault, the /RTY really went a tiny bit over its retracement degree.
The best situation, after all, can be for these ranges to be revered on Sunday, Monday, and Tuesday, with some weak point kicking in someday throughout these days. As with all issues concerning the market, solely time will inform.
One final merchandise that’s intriguing is the bond futures (/ZB). Pay attention to the trendline failures and the way, even with a modest rally final week, the costs stayed completely beneath the failed trendline.
We zoom in for a more in-depth look……….
……and nearer nonetheless:
In abstract:
- I had a rotten, rotten week (nonetheless handsomely worthwhile for the 12 months, however boy, did I get skinned);
- I’m in 43% money since my confidence/need for danger had been blown to smithereens;
- These Fibonacci ranges, “found” lengthy earlier than this rally even happened, have finished a tremendous job up to now, and I positive would recognize it if the market gods would hold them as revered.
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