8 Monster Stock Market Predictions: Post Fed Bounce, But No Rally Expected

May 3, 2022

[ad_1]

1. Liquidity

On Friday, shares had been crushed, with the dropping by greater than 3%. The market has been very unstable, and that’s as a result of the liquidity out there has thinned out once more, with the highest of the guide shrinking and the bid/ask unfold rising wider.

Liquidity has been a persistent drawback since mid-November.

Book Depth vs Bid Ask Spread Chart

E book Depth vs Bid Ask Unfold Chart

2. S&P 500

The S&P 500 was principally in free fall mode on Friday, closing close to 4,130, and has now dropped practically 8.5% since peaking on Apr. 20.

It actually feels just like the sell-off we noticed on Friday isn’t over, and given the place assist is for the S&P 500, we might simply see a drop to round 4,020 on the S&P 500 earlier than getting any bounce mid-week.

SPX Index Chart

One of the best probability for a rally will come on Wednesday following the . There’s a sense of nervousness that the Fed might shock the markets, however I believe that’s extremely unlikely to occur.

Moreover, the FOMC conferences have served as an occasion the place shares rally following the press convention.

S&P 500 Weekly Chart

At this level, the obvious place for the S&P 500 to rally again to is round 4,300. Nonetheless, this might be tough as a result of loads of it will depend upon the place markets are heading into the FOMC information on Wednesday.

So I don’t suppose any rally will final or will begin some new bull market. I don’t consider that’s possible. I don’t see how this market rallies until the Fed pivots to a extra dovish stance or valuations get low sufficient that fundamentals can assist the market.

I don’t suppose fundamentals may help this market but. So decrease costs are prone to come after any FOMC rebound.

S&P 500 1-Hour Chart

3. TIP ETF

The iShares TIPS Bond ETF (NYSE:) will even have to be watched as a result of it broke down late within the day on Friday.

Round 2:30, the ETF and actual Yields noticed a really sharp transfer, with the surging round -10 bps as much as 0 bps.

It isn’t clear what occurred, nevertheless it was an enormous motion in a quick interval.

iShares TIPS ETF Chart

In fact, the transfer increased in actual yields was accompanied by a transfer increased in nominal yields, with the fee rising to 2.94%. The ten-yr fee is once more approaching 3%, and it doesn’t look like there’s a lot standing in its manner of climbing to the three.25 area%.

US 10 Yr Yield Chart

4. Amazon

Amazon.com (NASDAQ:) was the largest loser on Friday, dropping by practically 15%. Given how poor the outcomes have been the , I believe traders have lastly given up on the title.

It’s all about this assist area, round $2,450 to $2,475. If that holds, you possibly can see a rebound as much as resistance round $2650; if not, the chart suggests a drop to $2,025.

Amazon Daily Chart

5. Meta Platforms

The one a part of Meta Platforms’ (NASDAQ:) was that they weren’t as unhealthy as everybody thought. That doesn’t imply the inventory ought to commerce up as a lot because it did. I might suppose that the inventory fills the hole at round $177 additional time.

Meta Platforms Daily Chart

Meta Platforms Every day Chart

6. Tesla

Tesla (NASDAQ:) seems to be fairly weak right here, and the inventory has struggled to recover from the technical resistance degree at $910. I believe this inventory is now at a degree the place one of the best days are behind it, and the shares are prone to battle as traders start to consider the potential progress fee for future deliveries being too excessive.

I might look ahead to a break of technical assist at roughly $840.

Tesla Daily Chart

7. Superior Micro Gadgets

Superior Micro Gadgets (NASDAQ:) continues to deflate, and there isn’t a lot maintaining this inventory from falling again to $73.50. Yeah, the valuation is getting favorable, however after Intel’s (NASDAQ:) and the weak spot within the semis typically, you need to surprise, with AMD outcomes this week, we might see the inventory buying and selling sub-$80 very quickly.

AMD Daily Chart

8. NVIDIA

NVIDIA (NASDAQ:) has additionally dropped, and now the shares are approaching $180, with no assist after that till the mid-150s.

NVDA Daily Chart

This week’s free YouTube Video

Have an excellent week!

Unique Put up

[ad_2]